Hello. I'm Ahmad.

Finding structure in uncertainty.

Statistician · Data scientist

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A small experiment

How does new evidence change what we believe?

Each click adds a measurement (a dot). The curve moves as the estimated average changes; a narrower curve means less uncertainty.

An illustrative Bayesian update of a normal mean. −3 0 3
Possible average values · θ

Dashed line: our starting belief. Solid line: our updated belief after seeing the measurements. This is a simplified example.

p(θ | x) ∝ p(x | θ)p(θ)